The event brought together legal scholars, scientists and practitioners to explore how climate change is reshaping migration and how legal frameworks are responding. Kushagra Pandey, PhD candidate at the Institute of Environmental Studies (VU Amsterdam), opened the conversation by answering three big questions of why, where and when migration occurs based on modelling migration using agent based modelling. He focused on three key drivers: physical climate risks, human behaviour and future migration dynamics under climate change, particularly sea-level rise.
Using modelling approaches such as gravity models and agent-based simulations, Kushagra demonstrated how rising seas, flooding and saltwater intrusion create pressures to move. He focused on internal migration, especially coast-to-inland movement, rather than cross-border displacement. His research highlights a growing intention–action gap in which many people wish to relocate but lack the means to do so, leaving the most vulnerable populations exposed. Once adaptation limits are reached, displacement becomes unavoidable, yet remains highly unequal.
Prof. Elspeth Guild, global professor of Social Justice, Law School at University of Liverpool and Emerita Professor of Law at Radboud University examined how international law is evolving in response. She centred her analysis on the principle of non-refoulement, rooted in the 1951 Refugee Convention and other conventions. A key development is the 2025 ICJ Advisory Opinion, which recognises that climate-related risks to life may trigger non-refoulement obligations. This strengthens the argument that non-refoulement forms part of customary international law, with an expanding scope in terms of both who is protected and under what conditions. The recent UN General Assembly resolution further reinforces this trajectory, signalling growing international recognition of states’ responsibilities in the context of climate change.
As discussant, Dr. Madeline Garlick, Chief of the Protection Policy and Legal Advice Section at UNHCR, emphasised both progress and challenges. She pointed to the difficulty of attributing displacement directly to climate change, which complicates legal claims, but underlined that legal norms are evolving. She also highlighted risks of statelessness and stressed the need for stronger protection of vulnerable populations, alongside enhanced international cooperation.
Moderated by Dr. Janna Wessels of the Amsterdam Centre for Migration and Refugee Law (ACMRL) at VU Amsterdam, the session demonstrated the value of interdisciplinary collaboration: by enabling experts from different fields to question, challenge and learn from one another, it fostered a richer and more integrated understanding of climate migration. Such exchanges are not only valuable but essential for developing effective and just responses the defining challenges of our time.
