Theo Kocken provided a framework for robust decision-making and design concepts that are most compatible with fundamental uncertainty. All these issues were put into a macroeconomic perspective by Jan Willem van den End, whereas Stefan Lundbergh concluded that the financial sector may have escaped disaster in 2020 but is still very unstable.
Theo further noted that systemic risk has not necessarily reduced since the 2008 global financial crisis. There is no time for complacency for the financial sector with its high market valuations, for monetary policies that have no exit strategy, for increased debt levels worldwide and for uncertainty around how liquidity will work out in the next financial crisis.
The design principles discussed may be helpful to prepare for a volatile and fundamentally uncertain future.
Prof. dr. Theo Kocken (speaker)
Theo Kocken is the founder of Cardano, professor of Risk Management at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and chairman of the Cardano Development Foundation.
In the last three decades, he has published many (chapters in) books, articles and an incidental documentary to improve education on risk management. During these decades his focus shifted from derivatives and risk modelling towards behavioural de-biasing, complex dynamic systems and how to create resilient institutions in a world of fundamental uncertainty.
Dr. Jan Willem van den End (discussant)
Jan Willem van den End joined DNB in 2001 as an economist in the Financial Stability division and is currently a senior economist in the Economics and Research division. He is an expert on monetary policy and macro-finance and has published in academic and policy-oriented journals. He is also a Lecturer at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, where he teaches the master course Macro- and International Finance. He started his career in the financial sector.
Stefan Lundbergh (discussant)
Stefan Lundbergh is Director of Cardano Insights. In his past, he held various positions at APG in the Netherlands and Skandia Life Insurance Company in Sweden. He holds a PhD from the Stockholm School of Economics. He has also been a non-executive board member of the Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund (AP4) and headed a review of the Swedish premium pension system in 2017.