Environmental scientists from VU Amsterdam looked at the situation on the Caribbean island of Bonaire. If global warming exceeds 1.4 degrees Celsius, part of the island could end up underwater by the end of the century due to rising sea levels. The number of heatwaves is also expected to increase, and should temperatures rise further, Bonaire’s coral reefs will die.
This is according to the study by the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. The research team, which included scientists and Master’s students from VU Amsterdam, looked at the impact four potential climate scenarios would have on Bonaire: three scenarios that assumed a respective global warming of 1.4, 2.7 and 4.4 degrees Celsius, and one scenario that assumed a warming of 4.4 degrees while also taking into account uncertain factors, such as the melting of the ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica. If global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees, in keeping with the Paris Climate Agreement, the consequences would be considerably smaller than if temperatures were to rise by 2.7 or even 4.4 degrees.
Possible impact of climate change
The study examined the potential impact of climate change on Bonaire’s economy, infrastructure and cultural heritage, and on the population’s health. In each of the scenarios considered by the researchers, the southern part of the island would be at risk of partial flooding in 2050. Moreover, roads, other important infrastructure and cultural heritage would be damaged. Interviews with medical experts also suggest that climate change could lead to more deaths and illness, for example as a result of an increasing number of heatwaves.
Less tourism
Without healthy coral reefs, which act as breakwaters, the risk of flooding will increase. Only in the most optimistic scenario – a 1.4 degree rise in temperature, just under the Paris Climate Agreement target – will coral reefs still be largely intact in 2050. But in the most extreme scenario, the number of diving sites will have dropped from 86 to 13 in 30 years because the coral’s quality will be so poor by then that divers will stay away from many current diving spots. As a result, there will be less diving tourism, which will likely have an enormous impact on Bonaire’s economy.
The research was funded by Greenpeace and conducted in collaboration with consultancy firm Wolfs Company.
