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Research Water and Climate Risk

In the department of Water and Climate Risk (WCR) explicit attention is given to the interaction between the hydrological and climate systems, and how these interactions lead to risk to society, the economy, and the environment.

The focus is on water and climate extremes such as floods and droughts, to estimate impacts from these extremes on various economic sectors, and to examine which strategies can be developed to reduce impacts and risk. This requires the mapping of climate and water-related hazards, as well as the exposure of people and assets and their vulnerability, and estimating associated costs to reduce risk. Risk management and risk transfer strategies are evaluated in the context of both developed and developing countries. Model simulations, data processing, data assimilation and the integration of economic instruments, such as insurance, are key scientific strengths of the department. 

WCR focuses on three themes: (1) Climate Change and Extremes, (2) Flood, Drought and Multi Risk Assessment, and (3) Risk Management and Adaptation. Our mission is to study hydrological and climate processes, and understand how these processes lead to risks and opportunities for society, the economy, and the environment. Our interdisciplinary approach combines expertise from natural sciences with knowledge from the fields of economics, computational science, social sciences, and geography. WCR received the highest possible scientific scores from the 5-yearly national SENSE evaluation. Key research partners in the Netherlands are KNMI, PBL and Deltares. 

In our research, we use simulation models and advanced data analyses to assess risks on local to global scales, in both the global north and south. We give special attention to feedbacks between different compounding hazards and to the interaction of the physical water-climate system and society. The availability of massive datasets and quantitative methods like machine learning enable us to assess extreme events and their impacts. A unique aspect of our work is that we blend these quantitative methods with qualitative and participatory approaches to assess vulnerability and risk and to co-develop solutions with stakeholders. 

WCR is a dynamic group of more than 45 faculty members including international researchers and PhD candidates. 

The department is led by Prof. Philip J. Ward.

More information

  • Research themes

    The research in the department is broadly organised according to three themes.

    Climate extremes, attribution and forecasting

    In our climate extremes research, we use state-of-the-art climate models and innovative data-driven methods to develop customised tools (‘climate services’) to assess extreme weather risks. We focus on how climate variability and change affect the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like heat waves, extreme rainfall and persistent drought. We use machine learning techniques like causal discovery and interpretable AI to understand the physical processes leading to such extreme weather events. This enables us to develop skilful seasonal to sub-seasonal (S2S) forecasts and to assess long-term climate risks. S2S forecasting is an increasingly important topic aiming at building effective early warning and early action programs. For future risk assessments, we develop and apply ‘Future Weather’ and ‘Storylines’ concepts to support the interpretation of climate risk information by decision-makers.

    We integrate fundamental climate research on extreme weather with research on societal risks, opportunities and adaptation options. Examples of our climate extremes projects are:

    • Project XAIDA : detection and attribution of extreme weather events
    • In project IMPRINT, we aim at improving S2S forecasts for droughts and heatwaves 
    • The TiPES: tipping points, early warning signals, meteorological extremes over the Mediterranean basin
    • The PERSIST project; persistent summer droughts, agriculture, and the role of global warming
    • Projects using climate modelling and climate data to simulate hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts in the past in a paleo climate context 
    • Forecast-Based Financing (FBF) to mitigate disasters in Africa 
    • Project RECEIPT develops storylines of agricultural crop risks under climate change

    Flood, drought and multi-risk assessment

    Our research on Flood, Drought and Multi-risk focuses on interactions between natural hazards and society to understand risk processes. We develop and use state of the art datasets and models for assessing flood and drought risk on local to global scales to increase our process understanding and to assess the effectiveness of disaster risk reductions solutions. Besides flood and droughts, we developed risk assessment models for other natural hazards, including wildfires, heatwaves, wind storms, and hail . We also assess compound / consecutive events and multi-hazard risk from a systemic perspective, across different sectors. 

    Examples of our flood and drought risk projects are:

    Examples of our multi-risk projects are:

    • MYRIAD-EU: multi-risk decision-making in Europe
    • In the PERFECT STORM project: multi-risk effect of combined floods and droughts
    • In Connect4WR flood and drought management in southern Africa 
    • In a project for the World Bank, we analyse drought-flood events in East Africa

    Socio-hydrological feedbacks and risk management

    Our Risk Management and Climate Adaptation research focuses on developing and evaluating disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures and builds on our Climate Extremes and Flood, Drought & Multi-risk simulations. A focus area is to assess the dynamics in vulnerability and adaption and to address the feedbacks between the physical water system and societal responses (Socio-Hydrological feedbacks). A key tool for simulating these feedbacks is agent-based modelling (ABM), which allows us to analyse individual adaptive decisions, and interactions between stakeholders in risk management. Important for   developing ABMs is the cooperation with social scientists and economists for gathering empirical field data, for understanding decision processes underlying risk management and policy. We also apply the adaptation pathway approach, to support a participatory process with stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies and to address uncertainty in future climate change scenarios.  

    Examples of our risk management & adaptation projects are:

    • I-CISK project will innovate existing climate services by integrating local data and knowledge, perceptions and preferences of users with scientific knowledge
    • COASTMOVE project  for simulating global migration flows due to sea level rise
    • The Down2Earth: agent-based models for drought management in Eastern Africa 
    • Sea level Rise adaptation in Los Angeles, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Shanghai, NYC and Rotterdam 
    • DIFI project: EU Insurance model to flood insurance under climate change 
    • In RESILIO: apply forecasting weather data to automate the storage capacity of green roofs 

  • Research projects

    The projects are organised according to the three themes.

    (1) Climate extremes, attribution and forecasting

    (2) Flood, drought and multi-risk assessment

    (3) Socio-hydrological feedbacks and risk management

  • List of key publications

    Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2017). Climate-induced migration: Impacts beyond the coast. Nature Climate Change,  7, 315–316.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3279

    Aerts, J.C.J.H., Botzen, W., Emanuel, K., Lin, N., de Moel, H. & Michel-Kerjan, E.O. (2014). Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science, 344, 473–475. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248222

    Aerts, J.C.J.H., Botzen, W.J., Clarke, K., Cutter, S.L., Michel-Kerjan, E., Surminski, S., Mysiak, J., Merz, B., Hall, J., Kunreuther, H. (2018). Including human behavior in flood risk assessment. Nature Climate Change, 8, 193-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1

    de Ruiter, M.C. & van Loon, A.F. (2022). The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it. iScience, 25(8), 104720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104720

    Eilander, D., Couasnon, A., Sperna Weiland, F.C., Ligtvoet, W., Bouwman, A., Winsemius, H.C., Ward, P.J. (2023). Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 2251–2272. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023

    Hamed, R., Vijverberg, S., van Loon, A.F., Aerts, J. & Coumou, D. (2023). Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America. Earth System Dynamics, 14(1), 255–272. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023

    Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Šakić Trogrlić, R., Reiter, K., Ward, P.J., de Ruiter, M.C., Duncan, M.J., Torresan,S., Ciurean, R., Mysiak, J., Stuparu, D., Gottardo, S. (2023). Toward a framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management. iScience, 26, 106736. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106736

    Koks, E.E., Le Bars, D., Essenfelder, A.H., Nirandjan, S. & Sayers, P. (2023). The impacts of coastal flooding and sea level rise on critical infrastructure: a novel storyline approach. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 8(sup1), 237–261. https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2022.2142741

    Kreibich, H., van Loon, A.F., Schröter, K., Ward, P.J., Mazzoleni, M., Sairam, N., Abeshu, G.W., Agafonova, S., AghaKouchak, A., Aksoy, H., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Aznar, B., Balkhi, L., Barendrecht, M. & 78 others (2022). The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 608, 80–86. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

    Matano, A., de Ruiter, M., Koehler, J., Ward, P. & van Loon, A. (2022). Caught between extremes: Understanding human‐water interactions during drought‐to‐flood events in the Horn of Africa. Earth’s Future, 10(9), e2022EF002747. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002747

    Nirandjan, S., Koks, E.E., Ward, P.J. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2022). A spatially-explicit harmonized global dataset of critical infrastructure. Scientific Data, 9, 150. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01218-4

    Odongo, R.A., de Moel, H. & van Loon, A.F. (2023). Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices, Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 23(6), 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023

    Reimann, L., Jones, B., Bieker, N., Wolff, C., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Vafeidis, A.T. (2023). Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise. Nature Communications, 14(1), 2630. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38278-y

    Rousi, E., Kornhuber, K., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Luo, F. & Coumou, D. (2022). Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nature Communications, 13(1), 3851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y

    Ruig, L., Botzen W.J., Haer, T., Brody, S., Czajkowski, de Moel, H. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2022) How the U.S. can benefit from risk-based premiums combined with flood protection. Nature Climate Change, 12, 995–998. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01501-7 (2022).

    Scholten, R.C., Coumou, D., Luo, F. & Veraverbeke, S. (2022). Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co-influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons. Science, 378(6623), 1005–1009. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn4419

    van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Boere, E., Ciullo, A., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Ercin, E., Goulart, H.M.D., Hamed, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Koks, E., Kubiczek, P., Levermann, A., Mechler, R., van Meersbergen, M., Mester, B., Middelanis, R., Minderhoud, K., Mysiak, J., ... Witpas, K. (2023). Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events. Climate Risk Management, 40, 100500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500

    van Loon, A.F. et al. (2022). Streamflow droughts aggravated by human activities despite management. Environmental Research Letters, 17(4), 044059. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5def

    Vijverberg, S. & Coumou, D. (2022). The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interactions in driving US temperature variability. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 18. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00237-7

    Wens, M.L.K., van Loon, A.F., Veldkamp, T.I.E. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2022). Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to drought under climate change, Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 22(4), 1201–1232. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022.

    You can find a full list of WCR's publications here

  • Data and models

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  • Editorships