Research
Paul Muller studies how labor markets work in practice, especially when workers face frictions, limited information, or institutional barriers. Much of his research asks a simple but important question: how can labor market policy help people find better jobs more effectively? His work is particularly relevant for public employment services, unemployment policy, disability insurance systems, and labor market shortages.
A central theme in his research is job search and occupational mobility. Using field experiments on online job platforms, he has shown how personalized occupational advice, wage information, and other digital interventions shape job seekers’ behavior and outcomes. This work combines insights from labor economics and behavioral economics, showing that search decisions are influenced not only by incentives, but also by attention, perceptions of competition, and the way information is presented. His recent and ongoing projects extend this agenda to long-term unemployed workers and workers in occupations with poor prospects, with a growing focus on how to support occupational transitions in tight and changing labor markets.
A second research line examines the effectiveness and broader consequences of labor market policy. His work evaluates job search assistance programs using both randomized experiments and quasi-experimental methods, including attention to spillover and equilibrium effects on non-participants. Beyond job search, he studies disability insurance, temporary work, migration policy, and family policy. Recent papers analyze why temporary workers face higher disability insurance risks, how disability benefits affect return to work after recovery, and how tax incentives influence labor migration to the Netherlands. Across these topics, his research is characterized by careful causal analysis, the use of administrative and experimental data, and a strong interest in policy design with real-world relevance.
