Survey research shows that willingness to fight has been low for decades. But that’s changed somewhat in recent years. What explains this? Wolfgang Wagner, professor of International Security at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and his colleague Michal Onderco, professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam, investigate this in their research “Towards A New Belligerency”.
Post-heroic society
The period after the Second World War is characterised by the “long peace” between great powers, large-scale international cooperation and emerging democracies. Generations of people are growing up without war, and in many countries prosperity is increasing. “People are getting richer. They worry about all kinds of things, but not about the threat of war and survival,” according to Wagner. “They’re less interested in the army as an institution, where you can play the hero and sacrifice your life for your country.” Growing prosperity has given rise to “post-heroic” societies, in which people are critical of putting the lives of their own citizens at risk. This trend can be seen in many places across the globe.
Turnaround
Although willingness to fight for the homeland was low for decades, it appears to have risen again for a large number of countries in recent years. The evidence for declining willingness to fight comes from the first six “waves” of the World Values Survey, a global study that has surveyed thousands of citizens since the early 1980s. The percentage of people who responded positively to the question of whether they would be willing to fight for their country fell with each wave. This trend has reversed in the most recent, seventh wave, conducted between 2017 and 2021. “That’s an alarming finding that we need to dig into,” says Wagner.
Wagner’s and Onderco’s research focuses on the survey results of countries on all five continents. “The conflict in our immediate vicinity could explain the recent turnaround. For example, the willingness to fight in countries like Poland, Lithuania and Finland is likely changed as a result of the war in Ukraine.” However, the increase took place after the annexation of the Krim and the war in the Donbas in 2014. By then, the threat of Russian imperialism was already making itself felt. “We assume that this is mainly a European phenomenon. In Latin America, the impact of the war in Ukraine will be less, while the wars in Syria and Libya could affect countries in the Middle East,” explains Wagner.
Other focus areas
In addition to conflict in the immediate vicinity, both scientists focus on the influence of economic crisis, terrorist incidents and social polarisation as possible factors associated with the willingness to fight. “The terrorist threat is a visible reminder that security cannot be taken for granted. If we look at prosperity, you could argue that the more prosperous societies become, the more important the individual is considered. Conversely, declining prosperity could have the opposite effect. We also include polarisation as a factor, because this is a recent trend that undermines democracy and decision-making.” Whether there is indeed a correlation between these variables, time will tell through the research, according to Wagner. “It’s a completely new line of research, so we can’t say much about it yet.”
Dutch Research Council grant
Wolfgang Wagner and Michal Onderco have recently been awarded a grant to carry out the “Towards A New Belligerency?” research project. The project is funded by the Dutch Research Council within the framework of the National Science Agenda.
