How can we prevent northern wildfires from accelerating climate change? That is the central question driving Sander Veraverbeke, Earth system scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, who has been awarded a prestigious Vici grant by the Dutch Research Council (NWO).
Through the project FireSky: Mapping lightning fires to protect permafrost carbon in a warming world, Sander Veraverbeke will investigate how lightning-caused wildfires affect vulnerable permafrost landscapes and how this knowledge can support more effective wildfire management and climate policy.
As the climate warms, lightning-caused wildfires are becoming more frequent and more severe across the Arctic and boreal regions. These areas contain vast expanses of permafrost -permanently frozen ground that stores enormous amounts of carbon accumulated over thousands of years. When wildfires burn away the insulating vegetation and organic soil layers, permafrost can thaw more rapidly, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and further accelerating global warming.
With FireSky, Veraverbeke will develop a new generation of satellite-based methods to detect, map and monitor lightning-caused wildfires across permafrost regions. By combining satellite observations with lightning detection networks, climate data and advanced predictive modelling, the project will identify the environmental conditions that drive lightning ignitions and predict where these fires are most likely to occur under future climate scenarios.
In addition to satellite observations, the research team will conduct extensive field campaigns in boreal North America. These field studies will measure how wildfires alter vegetation, soils, permafrost stability and carbon cycling. The observations will be used to validate satellite products and improve models that quantify the cascading effects of wildfire on frozen landscapes.
Supporting wildfire management and climate policy
Beyond advancing scientific knowledge, FireSky will deliver practical tools for policymakers and land managers. The project will produce predictive maps and decision-support tools that help determine where and when wildfire suppression is most effective. It will also assess how targeted fire management strategies can reduce permafrost degradation and limit the release of long-stored carbon.
The societal relevance of FireSky extends far beyond the Arctic. Carbon released from thawing permafrost has the potential to amplify global warming, with consequences for ecosystems, infrastructure, economies and communities around the world. By improving our ability to anticipate lightning-caused wildfires and understand their long-term impacts, FireSky will strengthen climate models, inform evidence-based environmental policy and support international efforts to meet climate targets.
About Sander Veraverbeke
Sander Veraverbeke is Associate Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, where he leads the Climate & Ecosystems Change research group. His research focuses on the interactions between climate change, ecosystem disturbances and the global carbon cycle, with a particular emphasis on wildfires, permafrost and northern ecosystems.
Before joining Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in 2016, Veraverbeke earned a PhD in Geography from Ghent University and held research positions at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Irvine. He previously received an NWO Vidi grant for the project Fires Pushing Trees North and a European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant for FireIce: Fire in the Land of Ice. He is also a member of NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) science team. With the Vici-funded FireSky project, Veraverbeke will further strengthen international research into the role of lightning-caused wildfires in shaping permafrost landscapes and the global climate.