The provisional enrolment figures for this academic year speak for themselves. The influx of bachelor's students at VU Amsterdam has fallen more sharply than the national average, and within our university, the Faculty of Science has been disproportionately affected. The decline in most science programmes is even greater than the already worrying VU average. There is great concern, and rightly so. In the workplace and in boardrooms, people are thinking hard about how we can turn this tide. The reflex to further increase recruitment is understandable, but I wonder whether this solves the fundamental problem.
A national trend
The figures are unmistakable. Nationally, the number of students enrolling in bachelor's programmes fell by 3.5%, but with a decline of 14%, VU Amsterdam has been hit even harder. International enrolment has plummeted by 9%, and the number of Dutch first-year students is also declining. This does not seem to be a coincidence, but rather a demographic reality. A recent WRR report shows that the group of 18- to 23-year-olds in Europe will only continue to shrink in the coming decades. Our most important sources – Germany and China – are slowly drying up. More intensive recruitment may limit the damage in the short term, but the fundamental problem remains.
That does not mean that recruitment is pointless. Of course, we must pull out all the stops to showcase our wonderful programmes. Our student ambassadors and study associations are invaluable in this regard. Their authentic stories during open days and their creative content spark curiosity among secondary school pupils. The new plan to train them better and involve the Faculty Student Council (FSR) more is therefore an important step. However, research also shows that there is no clear link between increased recruitment and sustainably higher student numbers. Campaigns work best in a favourable demographic context – a context that seems to be over for the time being.
Finding the right students
That is why it is important to have a more realistic picture of what recruitment can and cannot solve. In these times of decline, effective recruitment is essential, primarily to reach the right students and, to a lesser extent, to increase enrolment. But the real challenge lies in finding additional solutions. So let's not just focus on recruitment, but also take a critical look at what we offer in terms of programmes. National initiatives such as MasterMath for mathematics and the national coordination of biology education show that university collaboration can lead to more efficient and higher-quality education. These are inspiring examples of how we can explore new paths together.
Making choices together
I don't have a ready-made answer to the problem of declining enrolment, but I do have a conviction. Yes, national and regional coordination is infinitely more complex than intensifying recruitment efforts. Even coordination between programmes on the VU campus can be complicated. It requires courage, a great deal of patience and overcoming institutional barriers. But while recruitment mainly combats symptoms, portfolio coordination does offer a sustainable perspective for the long term.
Decline is the new normal. Let's face that reality by not focusing exclusively on recruiting for a shrinking pool, but also by taking the more difficult path of collaboration and rethinking our offering. The solution probably does not lie in one major intervention, but in a combination of measures, including smart recruitment, collaboration with the professional field, and the courage to make choices together.