How do storms and cyclones change in a warmer climate? This question is more urgent than ever, as extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and causing greater damage. Yet the answer remains uncertain. Measurements of storms go back only a few centuries, whileeven older climates hold much valuable information.
Precisely for this reason, climatologists Paolo Scussolini and Niels de Winter have received an NWO M2 grant for an innovative research project, aimed at generating new insights into the impact of climate change on extreme weather in Europe.
In the project PAST, the researchers focus on a natural “proving ground” from the past: the Last Interglacial, also known as the Eemian, around 127,000 to 118,000 years ago. During this period, the European climate was up to three degrees warmer than today, comparable to scenarios our society may be heading toward. By studying how storms behaved then, the researchers hope to gain a better understanding of what the future may hold.
Reconstruction on a weather scale
A major breakthrough of the project is that “paleo” storms will be reconstructed for the first time on a weather scale, with daily frequency. This is done using shells of molluscs such as cockles and mussels. Like tree rings, these shells record detailed information about their environment. By analysing subtle chemical “fingerprints” in the shells, the researchers can identify extreme events such as severe storms.
In addition, Scussolini and De Winter run highly detailed climate models that simulate the climate of the Eemian, including storms and cyclones. By combining these model simulations with geological data from the shells, a unique test emerges: Can we combine knowledge from models and shells into a reliable understanding of storminess in warmer climates, in the past and in the future?.
“The strength of the project, and the aspect most appreciated by the project reviewers, is the close collaboration between researchers from the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) and the Department of Earth Sciences. The combination of high-resolution model simulations from the IVM with innovative climate reconstructions in the Earth Sciences laboratories underscores the importance of information from the (deep) geological past, for our understanding of the Earth and the climate of today and the future. The project therefore comes at a crucial moment following the VU’s decision to continue offering the bachelor’s program in Earth Sciences, with its unique geological expertise,” says De Winter.
Better understanding of storm activity
The impact of this research extends beyond the past alone. By better understanding how storm activity responds to higher temperatures, climate models can more reliably predict how often and how intensely storms will occur over Western Europe in the future. This is crucial knowledge for policymakers, water managers, and society as a whole.
With PAST, De Winter and Scussolini are developing not only new insights, but also an entirely new approach to studying extreme weather in a warming world. In doing so, the project makes an important contribution to our ability to prepare for the consequences of climate change