Political scientist Juliana Chueri has received a Starting Grant from the European Research Council (ERC) to investigate how the labor market disruptions of artificial intelligence (AI) will challenge the foundations of the welfare state. “Our welfare states were built on the assumption of work. If AI automates Jobs, that foundation crumbles."
AI is advancing at a breathtaking pace. From creative industries to software development, tasks once thought immune to automation are now increasingly performed by machines. Recent surveys show that nearly one in three workers in OECD countries fear losing their jobs to AI within the next five years. “These fears are not unfounded,” says Chueri. “And governments are underprepared for the scale of disruption AI could bring to the labor market.”
Her ERC-funded project is the first systematic study of welfare state politics in the age of AI. It will examine how automation reshapes public support for protection, what kinds of security workers demand, and how political actors, parties, trade unions, and social movements, are responding. The project uncovers competing pathways of adaptation: whether societies reinforce existing systems, dismantle protections, or design bold new welfare models.
“The history of the welfare state is a history of reinvention,” Chueri notes. “Moments of upheaval – industrialization, economic crises, globalization – have all forced societies to rethink how security and solidarity should be organized. AI could be the next great turning point.”
With €1.5 million in ERC funding, Chueri will trace these dynamics across OECD countries, using surveys, computational methods, and longitudinal analysis. The project will reveal not just how societies are responding to AI, but what futures are being imagined, and fought over, today. “AI does not dictate our future,” Chueri emphasizes. “Its consequences depend on political choices. The visions of the future that are being fought over today will shape the direction our societies take tomorrow.”