30 September 2025
How will Dutch higher education look in 2040? A new article by Assoc. dr. Marie Louise Blankesteijn and PhD candidate Amir Ghorbani explores this critical question by developing probable future scenarios for the Dutch higher education system.
The study combines traditional scenario archetypes with quantitative text analysis of 80 forward-looking documents, identifying eight major driving forces that will shape the sector:
- Digital transformation
- Demographic changes
- Globalization and internationalization
- Economic and labor market needs
- Sustainability and climate change
- Funding challenges
- Societal and cultural shifts
- Policy and governance
Based on these drivers, the authors outline four distinct scenarios for 2040:
- Digital Horizons: Navigating the Future of AI-Driven Higher Education (most probable, 55%)
- The Great Decline: The Collapse of Higher Education Systems (least probable, 1%)
- Guardians of Sustainability: A Disciplined Approach to Higher Education
- Beyond Degrees: The Rise of Lifelong, Personalized Education
The article highlights the urgency for Dutch universities—recognized as global leaders in education—to prepare for profound transformations. With digitalization, policy shifts, and sustainability challenges at the forefront, the scenarios provide a valuable framework for university leaders to strengthen resilience and strategic planning.
Read the full article: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328725001648