The ratio of men to women in societies can predict political shifts

Additionally, traditional norms are believed to be eroding. In the case of more men in a society, there is an increased threat to people's security beliefs. This results in a preference for a strong male leader, someone who disregards parliament or the constitution to maintain order and stability. This is evidenced in the research conducted by VU PhD candidate Xiaotian Sheng, VU researcher Wendy Andrews, and VU professor Mark van Vugt (Amsterdam Leadership Lab). The results align with evolutionary theories on sexual selection, power, politics, and leadership and were recently published in Current Research in Ecological and Social Psychology.

Sheng states, "In this way, we can predict political shifts in countries and regions based on the ratio between men and women of reproductive age. This explains why some countries in the world are shifting toward an authoritarian leader, and also for certain parts of the Netherlands where there are more men than women."

History and authority
Van Vugt adds, "Political leaders with authoritarian personalities have frequently come to power in history. The popularity of these so-called strongmen is increasing, even in democratic nations. Erdogan, Putin, Trump, Modi, and (in the Netherlands) Wilders are good examples." At the same time, many countries in the world are grappling with the pressing issue of imbalance in the ratios of men and women of reproductive age within a society.

In India, for instance, the current operational activity is male-biased ("Too many men"), meaning there are more men than women of reproductive age. For every 100 women, there are currently 109 men in India. Russia exhibits the opposite pattern and has a female bias ("Too many women"): per 100 women, there are only 93 men (United Nations, 2019). “It’s the question whether these two trends – an imbalanced gender ratio and support for a strong leader – can somehow be related to each other”, says Sheng.