Deep Learning for Heatwaves: From Circulation to Impacts in a Changing Climate
Climate change is causing more and more severe extreme weather worldwide, such as heat waves. This has major consequences for health, ecosystems and food security. Current models do not always predict well, which is why Tamara Happé developed new methods with a focus on data-driven (AI) models.
Observed temperature trends in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including Western Europe and the Netherlands, are increasing more than the most sophisticated climate models had predicted. This is partly due to changes in atmospheric circulation that the models do not know how to simulate well.
Happé’s research therefore answers three questions: what changes in atmospheric circulation do we see in summer in the Northern Hemisphere, and what are the causes? How can AI methods improve our understanding of extreme weather and its associated dynamic changes? And what climate patterns do we see during impactful global crop failures?
“First of all, I show that the changes in atmospheric circulation are not the same everywhere in the northern hemisphere, and that some of these changes are not modeled as such by the climate models. If we understand why these changes are happening, we can make better forecasts of future heat waves.”
Crop failures
“In addition, I show that data-driven methods, such as artificial intelligence, can teach us a lot about the climate system. For example, I show that global crop failures are associated with specific patterns in the ocean and warm and dry conditions over land. I also show that these specific patterns have become more common in the ocean in recent decades.
“Fortunately, such crop failures are not common, but can have a lot of impact. The global food industry is very dependent on a number of regions in which a lot is produced. If these regions experience crop failures at the same time, it is noticeable all over the world. With more insight in which climate conditions increase the risk of crop failures, and how this changes over time, we can better prepare as a society.”
More information on the thesis.