New maps reveal how drought risks in the Horn of Africa can be better predicted and reduced
Drought in the Horn of Africa is more than a lack of rain – it only becomes a crisis when people lack the means to cope. That is the conclusion of new research by climate scientist Rhoda Odongo, who mapped the complex links between climate, vulnerability, and resilience in the region.
Odongo examined how droughts develop — from rainfall shortages to declining soil moisture and depleted water supplies — and how these changes affect food security, health, and livelihoods in countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Using climate indices and machine learning models, she calculated where and when drought hits hardest, and which communities are most at risk.
Vulnerability makes the difference
While climate variability determines when a drought begins, Odongo’s findings show that its impact is largely shaped by social factors: poverty, limited access to clean water and sanitation, gender inequality, and dependence on rain-fed farming and livestock.
“A lack of rain is only the beginning,” Odongo explains. “Drought becomes disastrous when people have no safety net.”
Early action works
The research shows that early warning signals of drought—for instance, rainfall shortages lasting one to four months—can be used to protect households before crises escalate. Short drought periods tend to predict water shortages, while longer dry spells affect livestock, crops, and nutrition.
By applying this knowledge, governments and aid organizations can respond more quickly: repairing water points, providing financial support, or building up food reserves before major losses occur.
From reaction to prevention
The study underlines the need to shift from reactive to proactive drought response. By better understanding where drought impacts are likely to emerge first, policymakers can target investments in water infrastructure, social safety nets, and training, strengthening communities’ long-term resilience.
The findings are already being used by organizations such as IGAD, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), and humanitarian partners to improve early warning systems and define triggers for early action.
“With the right information, we can’t stop droughts,” Odongo concludes, “but we can prevent them from becoming humanitarian disasters.”
More information on the thesis
