Human behavior crucial in calculating drought risks
How people manage water partly determines how droughts develop. That’s why climate scientist Ileen Streefkerk studied how human behavior can be integrated into models that calculate drought risks, with a focus on East and Southern Africa.
In these regions, drought has major consequences for millions of people who depend on agriculture and livestock. A lack of rainfall affects not only food security, but also income and well-being. According to Streefkerk, drought models often focus mainly on natural factors such as rainfall and water balance, while the way people respond is just as important.
“People constantly adapt their behavior – they store water, grow different crops, or migrate temporarily,” Streefkerk explains. “Those choices, in turn, influence how severe a drought becomes.”
Local knowledge improves predictions
One striking finding from the research comes from Malawi, where many farmers make their own weather forecasts based on local signals such as wind direction and temperature differences. By combining this knowledge with official drought forecasts, governments can better anticipate how people actually make decisions. This makes weather information more effective and relevant for local communities.
Unexpected effects of interventions
The research also shows that well-intentioned measures can have unforeseen consequences. For instance, expanding water storage can lead to higher water consumption, as people feel there is sufficient supply. This so-called “human–water feedback effect” can, in the long term, actually create new drought risks.
Toward more effective policy
Insights from Streefkerk’s research help policymakers, water managers, and aid organizations better understand how human behavior influences drought. In parts of Kenya, for example, large-scale farms upstream use so much water that downstream villages have less access to rivers or groundwater. If a forest or community were present in that same area, it could have a positive impact on water availability. By accounting for how people respond, interventions can be designed more intelligently – for example, projects that not only store water but also promote sustainable land and water use.
Relevance beyond Africa
Although the research focuses on Africa, the findings are broadly applicable. Droughts are becoming more common worldwide due to climate change – including in the Netherlands. Streefkerk’s new models help us better understand how behavior, policy, and water availability interact – and how we can work together toward a future with more resilient water systems.
More information on the thesis