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TiPES – Tipping Points in the Earth System (2019-2022)

The main aim of the TiPES project at IVM is to quantify tipping points, early warning signals and (compound) meteorological extremes over the Mediterranean basin.

In addition, physical mechanisms driving such changes will be explored, by providing insights into both thermodynamic (e.g. temperature increase) and dynamic (e.g. changes in weather patterns, Hadley-cell expansion, northward shift of storm tracks) processes.

Main methods

Dynamical systems analysis: Using a recently-developed method (Faranda et al., 2020) we are able to quantify joint recurrences in the phase-space for two (or more) atmospheric variables. The extreme values of these joint recurrences are termed as ‘compound dynamical extremes’ and they reflect compound meteorological events (Faranda et al., 2020; De Luca et al., 2020). Other methods that are used are Extreme value theory and Time series analysis.

This study was conducted in collaboration with more than 15 institutions across Europe.

Contact information: Dr Dim Coumou and Dr Paolo De Luca

For more information, please visit the following sites: and