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Consecutive disasters (2019-2025)

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way.

The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society and the increased frequency and intensity of non-tectonic hazard. While a large body of literature addresses multi-risk based on the spatial overlap between the exposure of different hazard types faced by one particular area, the temporal aspect of sequential hazards has been studied to a much lesser extent.

Yet, neglecting the residual risk from the impact of consecutive hazards can lead to a strong bias in the total risk. This study looks at the different implications of consecutive risk modelling on:

  • the asynergies, the potential adverse effects, of DRR measures aimed at decreasing the risk of one hazard on the risk of another hazard;
  • changing migration and displacement;
  • changing wildlife populations.

This study was conducted in collaboration with Red Cross 510, British Geological Survey and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

Contact information: Prof. Philip Ward, Dr Marleen de Ruiter, Anais Couasnon, Jens de Bruijn

For more information, please visit the following sites: https://dataverse.nl/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:10411/NYLQWW and https://github.com/jensdebruijn/afghanistan_asynergies

Image: © Henk de Boer